Thursday, July 13, 2006

Buy or $ell?

Buy or Sell? That is the question. With the All-Star break long gone and forgotten, it is now time for teams to decide whether they are buyers or sellers. They have until July 31 to make the decision if they believe they are actual contenders, or just pretenders. Decide whether they should gear up for the future, or stock up for the playoff run. Let’s take a team-by-team look at who should be buyers or sellers.

AL East

Boston RedSox
1st Place 53-33
Decision: BUYERS
The RedSox have a few holes to fill. They could trade for a corner outfielder, and possibly add another arm in their bullpen, but their pitching isn’t much of an issue. If they could get that corner outfielder to protect Manny in their already stellar lineup, it would make them instant contenders for the AL Pennant.
TARGET: Bobby Abreu

New York Yankees
2nd Place 50-36 – 3 GB
2nd Place Wild Card – 6 GB
Decision: BUYERS
A lot of questions for this ball club. The biggest question on Cashman’s plate is whether to go after a top pitcher or a top hitter. Personally, I’d go for the pitching. They are still putting up runs with the lineup they have, and they are expecting Sheffield and Matsui to return by September, just in time for the stretch run. Their problem all year hasn’t been scoring runs, it’s been keeping runs from scoring on them. Randy Johnson isn’t the same anymore, Chacon is on the verge of being released, Wright is pulled from a game faster than 15 year old Jimmy losing his virginity, Pavano keeps getting worse feedback than Barbaro, their bullpen has a hard enough time getting the ball into Rivera’s hands. A lot of issues. So what do you do? Now that Cashman has total control of all baseball decisions, he doesn’t want to give up his top prospects like Philip Hughes, which is smart. But you can’t give up nothing to get something. They are in a bind. Their best option might be to go after Mark Redman of the Royals to use as stop gap. There aren’t many top pitchers that are going to available come the deadline. Cashman, I hope you’re creative because I haven’t heard one plausible solution from anyone yet.
TARGET: Alfonso Soriano, Jake Westbrook – but both Nats and Indians will ask for Hughes

Toronto Blue Jays
3rd Place 49-39 – 5 GB
3rd Place Wild Card – 8 GB
Decision: BUYERS
They have enough offense to support them, but their pitching has been OK, not horrible, but OK. Halladay has been a true Ace, and now Burnett is healthy, they have a reliable #2. They, like everyone else, will be looking for a Starter, but best of luck with that. I think they can get bye with Chris-Sabo-Goggles Gustavo Chacin as their #3 and Ted Lilly and Casey Janssen rounding out the rest of the rotation. I personally think they should focus on some bullpen help. They have to make sure they can get the ball in the hands of one of the most reliable closers in the game, B.J. Ryan. They have a legit shot at this division. My opinion, do not sell. Buy, buy, and buy. And what’s the worst that happens? With them buying, they are still gearing up to next year’s AL Pennant.
TARGET: Guillermo Mota, Jake Westbrook

Baltimore Orioles
4th Place 41-19 – 14 GB
10th Place Wild Card – 17 GB
Decision: SELL (The Franchise)
They are in complete disarray. They are like a bad case of Herpes. Once they think they solved something and could be heading in the right direction, another problem comes up. They thought they had the vaccine for their pitching woes, so they went out and hired Leo Mazzone. Even that magician couldn’t solve that problem (especially Cabrera’s wildness). They thought they had great team chemistry, now there are questions being raised about Tejada’s leadership. So what to do? Start dumping salary. This team is not going to get any better by the time Tejada’s contract is up. Might as well get rid of him, and dump him for a lot of young talent. They also have some other veteran players, making a lot of money, that teams would be interested in, like Javy Lopez, Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, Melvin Mora and Kris Benson, to name a few.
VETS TO BOOT: Tejada, Lopez, Millar, Conine, Mora and Benson

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5th Place 39-50 – 15.5 GB
11th Place Wild Card – 18.5 GB
Decision: SELL
Hey, at least they aren’t worse than the Royals, so they’ve go that going for them…which is nice. Look at their roster, they aren’t that bad. They already traded Toby Hall to the Dodgers and Aubrey Huff to the Astros. Now they just need to trade Julio Lugo to make room for B.J. Upton and Travis Lee so they can bring up D. Young (the D stands for Degenerate). They have a good young nucleus. Why screw that up? They can easily get good young pitching talent for Lee and Lugo. This team is on the right track. Now, don’t F it up.
VETS TO BOOT: Lugo and Lee


AL Central

Detroit Tigers
1st Place 59-29
Decision: BUYERS
Personally, I don’t think they can keep it up. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them tumble and not make the playoffs. Seriously, it’s the Tigers. I hope it doesn’t happen, but it can. And I feel bad for the Tiger fans. It’s like that girl you meet at the bar, she looks great, she’s talking to you, you buy her a few drinks, then BOOM. She tells you she has a boyfriend. Just a punch to the stomach. But hey, at least you felt good for a while. Ok, so what should they do? Buy of course. Ride the wave. But go for some veteran hitting and pitching. They could use some left handed bats, so ideally Bobby Abreu would fit the bill, or even Travis Lee could be valuable. There have also been rumors that the Tigers could be interested in Jeremy Burnitz or even Matt “Walrus” Stairs. They also need to shop for a veteran pitcher, like John Smoltz and some bull pen help to get to Todd Jones, because Francisco Rodney has floundered a little lately.
TARGET: Abreu, Lee, Burnitz, Stairs, Smoltz, Mota

Chicago WhiteSox
2nd Place 57-31 – 2 GB
1st Place Wild Card
Decision: BUYERS
Chicago might be the best all-around team in my opinion. No, I’m not an Ozzie Guillen fan, but he is a smart manager. The team has good chemistry and does things well in all facets of the game. But the one area they could improve is getting another pitcher, and maybe one more outfield bat. Torii Hunter is out there, but I highly doubt that the Twins would trade Hunter within their division. Another outfielder they could target who is reportedly on the market is Andruw Jones (they’d probably take McCarthy for him). They could go after Carl Crawford, but they’d obviously have to give up a whole lot to get him, so I would scratch that idea. So maybe they should just focus on the pitching. They are interested in Jason Schmidt, but they’d have to give up Brandon McCarthy and Brian Anderson, but maybe they could work out a deal where they get Schmidt and Randy Winn in the deal? It’s worth exploring. But even with this current roster, they could win the World Series.
TARGET: Schmidt, Andruw Jones

Minnesota Twins
3rd Place 47-49 – 11 GB
4th Place Wild Card – 9 GB
Decision: STAY PUT
I like their team, a lot. They have great pitching. They have good young players that are starting to play well, and they have a player in Torii Hunter that wants to re-sign with them in the off-season. Why mess with that? They finally caught fire, but it might be too late. They were on fire, but so were the WhiteSox and Tigers, and they were unable to make up ground. It’s OK. Keep trying for this year, because you never know, maybe they can catch the Tigers if they fall, but worse comes to worse, you are all ready for next year, especially behind their top guns Santana and Liriano
DON’T SELL ANYONE (Unless you trade Hunter, get young talent back, then sign him in the off season)

Cleveland Indians
4th Place 40-47 – 18.5 GB
9th Place Wild Card – 16.5 GB
Decision: SELLERS
Indians are done for the year. Stick a fork in them. Ok, that was corny, but you get the picture. They are possibly the biggest disappointment this year, probably just as bad as if you are about to get it on for the first time, but realize its that time of the month for your girl so it has to be delayed for a later date. That’s what these Indians were like. Now the fans have to wait til next year to get the pleasure out of watching them win. So who do they get rid of? Easy. First, Aaron Boone. They have Andy Marte, who they gave up in the Coco Crisp deal, waiting in the wings. Bring him up now. Ronnie Belliard is 30 years old, they can get good value for him. And all teams are looking for pitching right now, so they can always kick Westbrook, Byrd and Wickman to the curb. Just gear up for the next year.
VETS TO BOOT: Boone, Belliard, Westbrook, Byrd and Wickman

Kansas City Royals
5th Place 31-56 – 27.5 GB
12th Place Wild Card – 25.5 GB
Decision: SELLERS
Allan Baird just needs to get rid of his veterans, and I think he had that in mind when he signed Reggie Sanders in the off season. Sort of like when a guy is in a cold spell, they go after a girl, and then get rid of her for younger talent. Enough teams are inquiring about Sanders and from the sounds of it Matt Stairs and Mike Sweeney. They won’t get much for Sweeney or Stairs, but they have no future left in the organization, which is unfortunate because Sweeney was expecting things to be turned around by now. I don’t know which team is in worse disarray, the Royals or Orioles.
VETS TO BOOT: Sanders, Stairs, Sweeney


AL West

Oakland A’s
Tied 1st Place 45-43
Tied 5th Place Wild Card – 12 GB
Decision: BUYERS
They started off to a bad start once again, bounced back excellent to the tune of a 10 game winning streak, hit their plateau, then plummeted right before the All-Star break. So what does Billy Beane do? Buy if possible. The A’s have been haunted by injuries (Harden, Loaiza, Street, Bradley, Crosby) --- Ok, I was happy when Loaiza went down, I won’t lie, but as for the others, imagine if and when they get healthy. They can take control and have “Hand” in this division. They could use some bull pen help, but can’t afford much. They could talk to the Pirates about Mike Gonzalez or even Oliver Perez, who they just sent down to the minors, which means they wouldn’t have to give up much. A power bat would be ideal, which is more of a reason why they should have went for Adam Dunn last year, because now the Reds won’t trade him. The other option is to explore Soriano. They have Dan Meyer in the minors, who they could give up, would be risky with Zito leaving at the end of the year, but I think it would be worth it. Soriano could also move back to 2B and give them some right handed pop in that lineup. Shoot, if they signed Loaiza to a 3 year $21 mil contract, I think they could take on Soriano’s contract, which was $10mil for the year. There is also talk of them targeting Greg Maddux.
TARGET: Soriano, Gonzalez, Perez, Maddux

Texas Rangers

Tied 1st Place 45-43
Tied 5th Place Wild Card – 12 GB
Decision: BUYERS
Their lineup is stacked. And you have to figure Tiexiera is going to heat up hotter than the Texas sun. So the big question is whether or not their pitching can keep them in the race. Personally, I don’t think they can (but watch, I’ll be wrong on this prediction too). They have Adam Eaton set to return soon, which will be good. But they need a veteran pitcher, someone like, say, Livan Hernandez. Washington would probably give him up for mid-level prospects. They could also use some bull pen help.
TARGET: HERNANDEZ

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3rd Place 43-45 – 2 GB
7th Place Wild Card – 14 GB
Decision: BUYERS
They started getting hot right before the Break. They did the smart thing and got rid of Jeff Weaver, and brought his younger brother, Jered, back up from the minors (Actually, I would have opted for Escobar to go). They are going to bring up Howie Kendrick. But can him, and Napoli help bring them the AL West crown? That will be tough. They need hitting, bad. Their pitching will be fine. They just need bats in that lineup. The obvious player to help fill that hole is Alfonso Soriano (I think just about every team is after Soriano). He could play LF, 2B and DH. He’d fit perfectly in their lineup. They could also use some bull pen help, but their main target is Soriano. They could also look in the direction of Tejada (but Cabrera has been excellent at SS – although, they could move him to 2B or 3B) and Abreu to play LF, which would move Garrett Anderson to full-time DH. They have money to spend, and owner Art Moreno is willing to spend it.
TARGET: Soriano, Tejada, Abreu

Seattle Mariners
4th Place 43-46 – 2.5 GB
8th Place Wild Card – 14.5 GB
Decision: BUYERS
They will fade off, but what the heck, might as well prove it to your fans that you’re going for it. And who knows, if they get the right pieces, they might be able to put on a run for the AL West crown. Their biggest need, just like everyone else, is pitching. They should go after Mark Redman or Livan Hernandez. There isn’t much out there, so they would have to just settle. As for hitting, they could upgrade at SS, and try to go after Tejada, but they are also in desperate need for a CF, so Andruw Jones could be an option.. Maybe they too could try to spring for a Schmidt/Winn deal with San Fran.
TARGET: Redman, Hernandez, Tejada, Andruw Jones, Schmidt, Winn


NL East

New York Mets
1st Place 53-36
Decision: BUYERS
Believe it or not, they have a lot of holes to fill, primarily pitching. They MUST go after a Starter. No one really knows how serious Pedro’s injury is. No one knows if him and Glavine can keep pitching the way they have been all year (Well, Glavine really hasn’t pitched great in June and July, where his ERA in those months have ballooned over 5). Are they going to rely on Traschel and Soler as their 4 and 5 starters? They could bring in Livan Hernandez, which would help eat innings, but I don’t think he is the answer. Personally, if I was Omar Minaya, I’d go hard after D-Train. They’ll demand Pelfrey and/or Milledge and probably someone like Heilman. I would nix Milledge, but I’d throw Pelfrey in the deal. D-Train could be the difference maker for this team. He’s a proven veteran. Pelfrey has tossed 1 ML game. This isn’t a Kazmir for Zambrano deal. Pelfrey isn’t a “can’t miss” prospect. As for the offensive side, they could go after Soriano, but once again, they’d have to give up a lot. If you’re going to give up a lot, I’d go for the pitching, but that’s just me.
TARGET: Hernandez, Dontrelle Willis

Philadelphia Phillies
2nd Place 40-47 – 12 GB
8th Place Wild Card – 5.5 GB
Decision: Wait til last week in July
They can still get the Wild Card. It’s not out of reach. But apparently they want to dump salary quicker than Rocky was dropping his opponents prior to Clubber Lang. They want to dump Abreu and/or Pat Burrell’s contracts. I think it’s a tough call for Ed Wade. Rebuild or go for it? Maybe he just doesn’t believe his team can do it this year. He might as well wait to see if his team can turn things around and go on a run.
TARGET: No One just Yet
VETS TO BOOT: No One just Yet

Atlanta Braves
3rd Place 40-49 – 13 GB
9th Place Wild Card – 6.5 GB
Decision: SELLERS
Their reign of 14 consecutive Division Titles is over. Time to rebuild. But it was a hell of a run. You have to tip your cap to both GM John Schurholtz and Manager Bobby Cox for the job they have done. Just couldn’t pull off the miracle once again this year. Due to that, they might as well dump their veterans. Reports say Smoltz would accept a deal to Detroit, and it is rumored that they may be shopping the Jones’ (Chipper and Andruw) and even Tim Hudson.
VETS TO BOOT: Smoltz, Chipper and Andruw Jones, Hudson

Florida Marlins
4th Place 38-48 – 13.5 GB
10th Place Wild Card – 7.5 GB
Decision: STAY PUT
Out of any team in baseball, they have the best foundation. Great manager, great young positional players to build the team around (Miguel Cabrera), good young pitching, and a top shelf young pitcher to build your staff around (Willis). Don’t break it up. Loria pays peanuts to these guys (literally, he gives them peanuts) and they are already in the hunt for the Wild Card. Wait til next year when they contend, then the year after when they are the best team in baseball.
TARGET: No one
VETS TO BOOT: No one

Washington Nationals
5th Place 38-52 – 15.5 GB
11th Place Wild Card – 9.5 GB
Decision: SELLERS
They have Vets they can get rid of for a good core of young players, like Livan, Jose Guillen and Soriano. Just get rid of them. They don’t want to play in Washington, they’d rather compete for a championship some place else. This is the time Bowden can make his mark and do something good before he leaves by building a good foundation for this team.
VETS TO BOOT: Hernandez, Guillen, Soriano


NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals
1st Place 48-39
Decision: BUYERS
Even with the loss of Pujols for a couple weeks, they were able to stay on top of the NL Central. Rolen carried their offense with the help of Eckstein and even Edmonds. They can always use more pop in their lineup, but there isn’t much to fill their needs, unless they go after Soriano or Jose Vidro to play 2B or even try to pry away Raul Ibanez from the Mariners to play OF. Their biggest needs is Starting Pitching though. One place they could try to get it, Tim Hudson of the Braves. He’d fill the void that is being left by Mulder right now, and could be a big boost to their rotation.
TARGET: Soriano, Vidro, Ibanez, Hudson

Cincinnati Reds
2nd Place 45-44 – 4 GB
Tied 2nd Place Wild Card – 1.5 GB
Decision: BUYERS
Buy, buy, buy. Jerry Narron has done a fantastic job with this team. They have a realistic chance at the Wild Card. Their biggest need is 1 more starting pitcher, which someone like Mark Redman or Jake Westbrook could fill (remember, no real difference makers out there). They are also in desperate need for a closer, a role Bob Wickman can fill. They could also use an outfield bat (Ibanez) and move Dunn over to 1B, which would put Hatteberg onto the bench (he’s done a nice job though) and allows him to pinch hit and gives that team depth.
TARGET: Redman, Westbrook, Wickman, Ibanez

Milwaukee Brewers
3rd Place 44-46 – 5.5 GB
Tied 5th Place – 3 GB
Decision: STAY PUT
They can make a run at the playoffs, and if they want to, go ahead and trade for a starter like Westbrook or Redman, but don’t sacrifice too much young talent. And whatever they do, do not trade Carlos Lee. He wants to remain a Brewer, and when was the last time anyone has ever said that?
TARGET: Westbrook, Redman

Houston Astros
4th Place 43-46 – 6 GB
7th Place Wild Card – 3.5 GB
Decision: BUYERS
They just got Clemens back and maybe they’ll stop hitting like pansies and score him some runs. They have Oswalt and Pettitte who are very good pitchers (Oswalt the best actually). Their bull pen is solid with Lidge closing out the games (although isn’t the same Lidge as a year ago). Where they need help is offensively, and a lot of it. Yes, payroll is tight. They just traded for Aubrey Huff who has been on fire lately, but they could definitely use a OF. Top of that list is either Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones in my opinion. They could also go after Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu, but I think they would have to absorb too much of their contract and wouldn’t be willing to do it. One of those two guys could easily bring them back to the World Series, and who knows, maybe even it this year. I wasn’t a believer in Houston the last 2 years, but they proved me wrong each time. I’m not doing that again, especially if they can get their hands on a top OF.
TARGET: Hunter, Andruw Jones, Burrell, Abreu

Chicago Cubs
5th Place 34-54 – 14.5 GB
12th Place Wild Card – 12 GB
Decision: SELLERS
Their season is over. Like Oakland, they have suffered too many injuries (Prior, Wood, Lee), but unlike Oakland, they couldn’t win games while their top players were on the DL. Shame. Now Dusty Bakers rear is on the hot seat, and it’s not his fault. But they have some players they could get rid of to shed some payroll and some contracts that are in their final year (Juan Pierre-who has turned it on a little as of late) and get something in return for him. It might be a while til we see the Cubs in contention again.
VETS TO BOOT: Prior, Wood, Maddux, Pierre, Jacque Jones, Todd Walker

Pittsburgh Pirates
6th Place 30-60 – 19.5 GB
12th Place Wild Card 17 GB
Decision: SELLERS (but don’t sell much)
They actually have some good young fawn. Some baby boomers. They can build the team around Bay, and Freddy Sanchez has come around nicely. Zach Duke is having a something like a Sophomore Slump, but I don’t know if this technically counts as his sophomore season. 2 years from now they can compete. But for now, get rid of some dead weight like Oliver Perez, which for some reason, teams want, beats me.
VETS TO BOOT: Oliver Perez


NL West

San Diego Padres
1st Place 48-40
Decision: BUYERS
The NL West could end up being the best divisional race in all of baseball. Who would have predicted this division to be as good as it is right now? You? I don’t think so? Me? Definitely not. I also certainly did not think the Padres would be where they are with Peavy pitching as poorly as he has been (poorly as in Peavy terms). Here they are, on top of the division and with an excellent chance to stay there. 2 needs. 1) Starting Pitcher. So obvious choice here is probably Jake Westbrook. 2) Outfielder/Power Hitter. Obvious choice is Soriano, although I do not think they could afford Soriano, unless Washington eats a good chunk of his contract. I believe going after Soriano is worth it. He’d be able to hit in that ballpark. Shoot, if he can hit at RFK, he can hit anywhere. The question just remains, will Kevin Towers pull the trigger to put them over the top?
TARGET: Westbrook, Soriano

L.A. Dodgers
2nd Place 46-42 – 2 GB
1st Place Wild Card
Decision: BUYERS
Another surprise team. Nomar has really helped this team out offensively. Now the hot rumor is Soriano going to L.A. Soriano in that lineup would do wonders (but he would also do wonders in most teams lineups). Abreu and Burrell are also options. Their other biggest need is health. If they can actually stay healthy, they will have a good race with San Diego to win the division. Another area of concern: Making sure Grady Little doesn’t leave Brad Penny in an important game too long.
TARGET: Soriano, Abreu, Burrell

Colorado Rockies
Tied 3rd Place 44-43 – 3.5 GB
Tied 2nd Place Wild Card – 1.5 GB
Decision: BUYERS
I don’t think it’s likely that they’ll end up making the playoffs, but they haven’t played this well since 1996. Helton is the leader to this young team. Holliday is the MVP. Their pitchers actually pitch well at their home ball park. A pleasant surprise. I wouldn’t move their youth, which is the majority of their team. Their main concern is budget issues, but they should go after at least 1 Starting Pitcher. So that brings up the names Mark Redman and Jake Westbrook once again.
TARGET: Redman, Westbrook

San Francisco Giants
Tied 3rd Place 45-44 – 3.5 GB
Tied 2nd Place Wild Card – 1.5 GB
Decision: SELLERS
I know, I know, they are only 3.5 out of the West and 1.5 out of the Wild Card. But I am a firm believer that with out Bonds being 100% healthy, or Bonds being in jail, they can not make the playoffs. Since they won’t be able to make the playoffs, they might as well trade Schmidt and get something in return for him. Teams could also be looking at some veterans to add to their roster such as Randy Winn, Steve Finley and Omar Vizquel. I think its time for them to rebuild.
VETS TO BOOT: Schmidt, Winn, Finley, Vizquel

Arizona Diamondbacks
5th Place 43-35 – 5 GB
Tied 5th Place Wild Card – 3 GB
Decision: BUYERS
This team is tough to decide on too. They don’t have enough hitting, but it’s not poor. They could always upgrade. But they can’t spend the money. Their main area in which they need to improve is their Starting Pitching, and too much of it. Even Brandon Webb isn’t enough to carry them to the playoffs. They can always go after Redman and Westbrook and even Livan, but there isn’t much out there, and a lot of the pitchers are expensive. I have a feeling they will either stay put or else start trading some of their veteran players like Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green.
TARGET: Redman, Westbrook, Hernandez

There you have it, those are my theories in what each team should do now that the trading deadline is nearing. Most teams are still in it. 20 teams are 6 games or less behind in either their respective division or for the Wild Card. So do they give up? Or do they go for it all? Now that I gave my opinion, I’d like to hear yours.